The role of mathematical modelling in predicting and controlling infectious disease outbreaks in underserved settings : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIM : Mathematical modelling plays an important role in public health by enabling the prediction of disease outbreaks, assessment of transmission dynamics and evaluation of intervention strategies. Although widely applied in high-resource settings, its use in underserved contexts remains underexplored. This review aimed to examine and synthesize current evidence on the application of mathematical modelling for predicting and controlling infectious diseases in underserved settings. METHODS : A comprehensive and reproducible search was conducted using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) and population, intervention, comparison and outcome (PICO) frameworks across databases, including PubMed, Scopus, Medline, ScienceDirect and EBSCOhost. Keywords and Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms related to mathematical modelling and infectious disease control were applied. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts and full texts, with a third resolving discrepancies. Thematic analysis and meta-analysis were used for synthesis. RESULTS : Out of 838 studies screened, 27 (3.2%) met inclusion criteria. Deterministic models were most used, followed by stochastic and agent-based models. Diseases modelled included COVID-19, malaria, tuberculosis (TB), Ebola, Zika, chikungunya, dengue, diphtheria, respiratory infections, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and Mpox. Modelling predicted the impact of interventions on transmission, with pooled effect size (Ro) of 1.32 (θ = 1.3, p < 0.0001). However, challenges, such as data underreporting, gaps and inconsistencies, were common, potentially affecting model accuracy and real-world applicability. CONCLUSION : Mathematical modelling has demonstrated value in supporting infectious disease control in underserved settings. However, the predominance of deterministic models limits adaptability across diverse contexts. Poor data quality further constrains reliability. Future work should focus on expanding modelling approaches, strengthening data infrastructure and addressing a broader range of diseases. These findings can guide public health policy by supporting data-driven decision-making, improving resource allocation and integrating modelling into outbreak preparedness and response strategies in underserved settings.